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The risks from climate change to sovereign debt.

Stavros A Zenios1,2,3

  • 1University of Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus.

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|June 13, 2022
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Sovereign exposure to climate risks impacts fiscal stability and debt servicing costs. This study integrates climate models with debt sustainability analysis to assess these risks and inform policy for fiscal authorities.

Keywords:
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Area of Science:

  • Economics
  • Environmental Science
  • Public Finance

Background:

  • Sovereign credit ratings and debt servicing costs are influenced by climate risks.
  • Climate risks to fiscal stability are currently underestimated.
  • Divergent climate risks affect advanced economies differently.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To highlight the inadequate attention given to climate risks affecting fiscal stability.
  • To propose methods for assessing climate risks to sovereign debt dynamics.
  • To evaluate the fiscal space for climate policy financing.

Main Methods:

  • Linking integrated assessment models (IAMs) with stochastic debt sustainability analysis (DSA).
  • Utilizing the narrative scenario architecture from the IPCC for structured analysis.
  • Employing scenario trees, narrative scenarios, and model ensembles to address uncertainty in climate change analysis.

Main Results:

  • Climate risks pose adverse effects on sovereign debt dynamics, observable as early as 2030.
  • Analysis using prominent IAMs shows negative impacts on a high-debt country's debt dynamics under climate risks.
  • The study quantifies the impact of climate risks on economic growth and subsequent debt sustainability.

Conclusions:

  • Climate risks require greater attention from fiscal stability authorities.
  • Integrated assessment models and debt sustainability analysis are crucial for understanding climate impacts on public finance.
  • Policy implications are derived for managing fiscal stability in the face of climate change.