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Lessons from SARS-CoV-2 in India: A data-driven framework for pandemic resilience
Maxwell Salvatore1,2,3, Soumik Purkayastha1, Lakshmi Ganapathi4
1Department of Biostatistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
Strengthening early public health interventions, including enhanced surveillance, could have significantly reduced severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) deaths during India's second wave without strict lockdowns. A data-driven framework is proposed for future pandemic preparedness.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Mathematical Modeling
Background:
- India successfully controlled the initial severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic in 2020.
- A significant surge in SARS-CoV-2 infections and mortality occurred from April to June 2021.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the impact of early public health interventions on controlling the second wave of SARS-CoV-2 in India.
- To propose a framework for future pandemic response.
Main Methods:
- Utilized counterfactual predictions from epidemiological disease transmission models.
- Conducted a retrospective analysis of the second wave.
Main Results:
- Evidence suggests that strengthening public health interventions early could have mitigated transmission and reduced mortality.
- Harsh lockdowns were not necessarily required to control the second wave.
Conclusions:
- Enhanced surveillance at all administrative levels is critical for pandemic responsiveness.
- A tiered, data-driven framework can guide timely escalation of interventions for future pandemics.
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