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Long-distance air pressure differences correlate with European rain
Gisela Müller-Plath1, Horst-Joachim Lüdecke2, Sebastian Lüning3
1Technische Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany. gisela.mueller-plath@tu-berlin.de.
Scientific Reports
|June 17, 2022
Summary
European rainfall patterns fluctuate seasonally and regionally. This study reveals significant correlations between monthly rainfall and climatic drivers like the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), aiding in improved rainfall predictions.
Area of Science:
- Climatology
- Meteorology
- Environmental Science
Background:
- European precipitation exhibits significant seasonal and regional variability.
- Previous research linked rainfall variability to long-distance air pressure differences.
- A continent-wide, month-by-month analysis of European rainfall variability was lacking.
Purpose of the Study:
- To conduct the first continent-wide analysis of European rainfall variability.
- To investigate month-by-month and country-by-country correlations with climatic drivers.
- To map the spatio-temporal evolution of these correlations across Europe.
Main Methods:
- Calculated Pearson correlation coefficients (r) for monthly rainfall data (1950-2019) from 39 European countries.
- Analyzed relationships with five climatic drivers: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Sea Caspian Pattern (NCP), Mediterranean Oscillation Index 2 (MOI2), and West Mediterranean Oscillation Index (WeMOI).
- Employed best subset multiple regression to control for driver intercorrelations.
Main Results:
- Identified substantial and statistically significant Pearson r values (up to 0.7) for various countries and months.
- Mapped the dynamic spatio-temporal evolution of correlations, showing expansion, displacement, and waning of driver effects throughout the year.
- Demonstrated significant influences of NAO, AO, NCP, MOI2, and WeMOI on European rainfall.
Conclusions:
- The study provides a comprehensive understanding of European rainfall variability drivers.
- Results can enhance short- to midterm rainfall prognoses in Europe.
- Findings offer crucial calibration data for refining climate models.
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