Central-European sunshine hours, relationship with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and forecast

Area of Science:

• Meteorology
• Climate Science
• Environmental Science

Background:

• Sunshine hours (SSH) are crucial for agriculture and solar energy.
• Previous research indicates a link between European SSH and North Atlantic thermal states.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the relationship between Central European SSH and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).
• To analyze annual and monthly SSH data from seven long-term Central European series.

Main Methods:

• Fourier Transformation
• Monte Carlo simulation
• Non-linear optimization
• Analysis of annual and monthly SSH series against AMO data.

Main Results:

• Significant peaks in Fourier spectra of annual SSH series align with the known AMO period (50-80 years).
• Optimized sinusoids show substantial correlations between SSH and AMO (r=0.42-0.55 for SSH, r=0.71 for AMO).

Conclusions:

• European SSH is significantly linked to the AMO.
• A projected decline of 9-16% in Central European SSH is anticipated over the next three decades, with northern regions most affected.