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Quantifying invasibility.

Jayant Pande1, Yehonatan Tsubery1, Nadav M Shnerb1

  • 1Department of Physics, Bar-Ilan University, Ramat Gan, Israel.

Ecology Letters
|June 19, 2022
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Invasibility, the probability of a species establishing, is better predicted using mean growth and variance, not just mean growth alone. New formulas offer improved quantitative metrics for invasion risk assessment.

Keywords:
coexistencecommunity dynamicsdemographic stochasticityenvironmental stochasticityextinction riskinvasibilitylottery modelstabilising mechanismsstabilitystorage effect

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Area of Science:

  • Population Genetics
  • Ecology
  • Epidemiology
  • Evolutionary Biology

Background:

  • Invasibility, crucial for population dynamics, has historically relied on mean growth rate as a primary metric.
  • Recent research indicates mean growth rate is an insufficient quantitative measure for invasibility.
  • Observed discrepancies show mean growth rate magnitude can increase as invasibility decreases.

Discussion:

  • This study introduces two novel formulas for calculating invasion chance, incorporating both mean growth rate and its variance.
  • The formulas are derived using diffusion approximation and a large-deviations (Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin) approach.
  • One formula prioritizes simplicity, while the other offers broader applicability across parameter ranges.

Key Insights:

  • The developed formulas provide a more accurate quantitative assessment of invasibility.
  • Incorporating growth rate variance significantly enhances prediction accuracy over mean growth rate alone.
  • A novel data analysis technique accompanies the formulas for practical application.

Outlook:

  • These formulas can refine ecological and epidemiological models for predicting species establishment.
  • Further validation with diverse empirical datasets will establish broader utility.
  • Improved understanding of invasion dynamics can inform conservation and management strategies.