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Delays, Masks, the Elderly, and Schools: First Covid-19 Wave in the Czech Republic
Luděk Berec1,2,3, Jan Smyčka4, René Levínský5,6
1Department of Mathematics, Centre for Mathematical Biology, Faculty of Science, University of South Bohemia, Branišovská 1760, 37005, České Budějovice, Czech Republic. lberec@prf.jcu.cz.
Abstract:
Running across the globe for nearly 2 years, the Covid-19 pandemic keeps demonstrating its strength. Despite a lot of understanding, uncertainty regarding the efficiency of interventions still persists. We developed an age-structured epidemic model parameterized with epidemiological and sociological data for the first Covid-19 wave in the Czech Republic and found that (1) starting the spring 2020 lockdown 4 days earlier might prevent half of the confirmed cases by the end of lockdown period, (2) personal protective measures such as face masks appear more effective than just a realized reduction in social contacts, (3) the strategy of sheltering just the elderly is not at all effective, and (4) leaving schools open is a risky strategy. Despite vaccination programs, evidence-based choice and timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions remains an effective weapon against the Covid-19 pandemic.
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