Cause and effect: On the antecedents and consequences of conspiracy theory beliefs

Since 2008, hundreds of studies have been published about conspiracy theories, many of which were in reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic. These studies are often motivated by concerns about the influence of exposure to conspiracy theories on beliefs, and the impact of conspiracy theory beliefs on behaviors. Numerous studies identify supportive correlations, concluding implicitly or explicitly that exposure causes belief and that beliefs subsequently cause behavior. We argue that while these causal relationships may exist, such conclusions currently lack robust evidence. We present an alternative model of the relationship between exposure, beliefs, and behaviors that accounts for other potentially causal factors and pathways. We encourage further work into the causal effects of exposure to, and beliefs in, conspiracy theories.