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Published on: June 3, 2020
Biological Aging for Risk Prediction of First-Ever Intracerebral Hemorrhage and Cerebral Infarction in Advanced Age
Reem Waziry1, Albert Hofman2, Mohsen Ghanbari3
1Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, United States; Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, United States; Department of Epidemiology, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Biological age, a novel biomarker, predicts cerebrovascular disease and stroke risk in older adults. This approach identifies individuals at high risk for conditions like intracerebral hemorrhage and cerebral infarction.
Area of Science:
- Gerontology
- Neurology
- Biomarkers
Background:
- Early identification of individuals at risk for cerebrovascular disease is crucial for effective intervention.
- Accessible plasma-based biomarkers for monitoring brain health in aging populations are limited.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the predictive value of biological age (BA) for cerebrovascular disease and stroke risk in older adults.
- To compare BA's predictive power against chronological age (CA) and established biomarkers (tau, Aβ40, Aβ42).
Main Methods:
- Biological age calculated using structural equation modeling based on biomarkers from six body systems.
- Time-to-event analysis using Cox-regression models and prediction analysis with Harrel's C and AUC.
- Study included 1699 individuals followed for a median of 11 years.
Main Results:
- Biological age demonstrated stronger associations with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and cerebral infarction (CI) compared to chronological age.
- BA outperformed CA in predicting ICH (AUC: 0.68 vs 0.53) and CI (AUC: 0.63 vs 0.62).
Conclusions:
- Integrated physiological biomarkers for biological aging offer a novel tool for identifying high-risk individuals for cerebrovascular disease.
- Findings suggest varying precision and magnitude for stroke subtypes, likely due to differing pathophysiology.
- Further validation in diverse samples and clinical settings is recommended.
