THE TRENDS OF THE DENSITY OF SURGEONS IN SOME EUROPEAN COUNTRIES AND 16 OECD COUNTRIES DURING 2005-2018

The aim: To establish that there are differences in the density trends of surgeons in some European countries and 16 OECD countries and to compare the trends of the density of surgeons in some European countries and 16 OECD member countries, 2005 - 2018.

Materials and methods: The study is based on data of the Centre for Medical Statistics of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine obtained during 2005-2020 and OECD data obtained during 2005-2018. The Difference-in-Differences method has been used to determine the density trends differences, the regression analysis method - to predict the number of surgeons in 2020.

Results: In 2020, there were 28,559 surgeons (0.687 per 1,000) in Ukraine, which is by 17.7% less than in 2005. From 2005 to 2018, the density of surgeons per 1000 in Ukraine and the United States decreased (-7.45% and -2.5%). In Korea (+ 78.38%), Greece (+ 65.52%), Lithuania (+ 58.57%), Slovenia (+ 45.65%) and other 11 countries the surgeon's density increased. In 2030, Ukraine is predicted to significantly reduce the number of surgeons, general surgeons, ophthalmologists and urologists; as well as to increase the number of cardiovascular surgeons. The number of proctologists, oncologists-surgeons, neurosurgeons, thoracic surgeons, orthopaedists-traumatologists and anaesthesiologists will not change significantly.

Conclusions: It is possible to state the availability of surgical care according to the density of surgeons in Ukraine, similar to the level of OECD countries. In 2030, the number of surgeons is projected to decrease, with the exception of cardiovascular surgeons.