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Keywords:
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Area of Science:

  • Economics
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Tobacco's economic contribution is debated due to health impacts.
  • The tobacco sector significantly influences economies globally.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the macroeconomic impact of tobacco.
  • To analyze the relationship between tobacco and economic indicators like GDP, unemployment, and inflation.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized macroeconomic indicators from World Bank Data and tobacco data from Euromonitor International.
  • Employed extended linear regression models addressing serial correlation and endogeneity.
  • Incorporated Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models for data properties.

Main Results:

  • Tobacco impacts the US economy but not Indonesia's.
  • Robustness checks using Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) analysis confirmed no significant economic effect in Asian markets.

Conclusions:

  • The economic contribution of tobacco is often overstated.
  • Recommends comprehensive tobacco control policies and interventions.