Using national data to model the New Zealand radiation oncology workforce

Area of Science:

• Health Services Research
• Medical Workforce Planning
• Oncology

Background:

• Radiation therapy demand is rising globally and in Aotearoa/New Zealand.
• The current radiation oncology workforce faces high clinical hours but lower intervention rates, indicating unmet patient needs.
• Accurate workforce models are crucial for addressing future radiation oncologist (RO) staffing requirements.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and apply a demand model for radiation oncologists (ROs) in Aotearoa/New Zealand.
• To project future RO requirements based on current treatment rates and population growth.
• To integrate demand projections with existing supply models for comprehensive workforce planning.

Main Methods:

• A demand model was created using national Radiation Oncology Collection (ROC) data and RO surveys.
• Intervention and retreatment rates (IR/RTRs) were calculated from ROC data and applied to population projections.
• Survey data informed RO time allocation across activities and work availability, linked to Ministry of Health supply forecasts.

Main Results:

• The demand model estimates a need for 85 ROs by 2031, up from 68 in 2021, assuming current IR/RTRs.
• Supply model predictions indicate a declining RO workforce, projecting a substantial shortfall.
• Analysis shows increased RO numbers are required if working hours decrease or IR/RTRs rise.

Conclusions:

• Robust workforce models utilizing comprehensive data are essential for effective health system planning.
• The developed RO demand model offers credible estimates for informing training, recruitment, and retention strategies.
• Addressing the projected shortfall is critical for meeting future radiation therapy needs.