Consequences of incorrect genetic parameter estimates for single-trait and multi-trait genetic evaluations in...

Genetic and residual variances of traits are important input parameters for best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) breeding value estimation. In honeybees, estimates of these variances are often associated with large standard errors, entailing a risk to perform genetic evaluations under wrong premises. The consequences hereof have not been sufficiently studied. In particular, there are no adequate investigations on this topic accounting for multi-trait selection or genetic peculiarities of the honeybee. We performed simulation studies and explored the consequences of selection for honeybee populations with a broad range of true and assumed genetic parameters. We found that in single-trait evaluations, the response to selection was barely compromised by assuming erroneous parameters, so that reductions in genetic progress after 20 years never exceeded 21%. Phenotypic selection appeared inferior to BLUP selection, particularly under low heritabilities. Parameter choices for genetic evaluation had great effects on inbreeding development. By wrongly assuming high heritabilities, inbreeding rates were reduced by up to 74%. When parallel selection was performed for two traits, the right choice of genetic parameters appeared considerably more crucial as several incorrect premises yielded inadvertent negative selection for one of the traits. This phenomenon occurred in multiple constellations in which the selection traits expressed a negative genetic correlation. It was not reflected in the estimated breeding values. Our results indicate that breeding efforts heavily rely on detailed knowledge on genetic parameters, particularly when multi-trait selection is performed. Thus, considerable effort should be invested into precise parameter estimations.