Artificial intelligence method to predict overall survival of hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a complex disease with heterogenous outcomes influenced by disease- and patient-related factors. The prediction of outcomes requires a comprehensive approach, and artificial intelligence could provide a feasible means of estimating HCC outcomes. This study was designed to assess the viability of a machine learning model to predict survival in HCC patients.

HCC patient data with at least 5 years of follow-up were retrospectively reviewed. Patients with accessible data on the primary liver disease, tumor and laboratory values at the time of diagnosis, and length of survival were included. A gradient boosting machine learning algorithm was constructed to predict patient survival at 6 time points.

A total of 100 HCC patients (80% male) with a median overall survival of 43 months (range: 0.7-256 months) were included. The survival rate for 6, 12, 24, 36, 60, and 120 months was 88%, 81%, 67%, 60%, 40%, and 11%, respectively. The mean area under the curve of the model prediction was 0.92 (0.061) for >6 months, 0.81 (0.107) for >1 year, 0.78 (0.11) for >2 years, 0.81 (0.083) for >3 years, 0.82 (0.079) for >5 years, 0.81 (0.96) for >8 years, and 0.66 (0.14) for >10 years.

The machine learning model successfully predicted short- and long-term survival of patients with HCC.