[Development Scenarios and Environmental Benefits Analysis of Future Power Generation Industry Under Two Modes in...

In order to study the impact of the "carbon peak and neutrality" mode on future power generation and the environment in China, a Verhulst gray model was established to predict the development of the power generation industry from 2021 to 2060 under the non-"carbon peak and neutrality" mode. In addition, based on the "China 2030 Energy and Power Development Planning Research and 2060 Outlook Report," the development of the power generation industry from 2021 to 2060 under the "carbon peak and neutrality" mode was obtained, and the development scenarios of the future power generation industry in China under two models were compared and studied. The emission factors and emission reduction factors of CO₂, SO₂, NO, PM, PM₁₀, and PM_2.5 were constructed through the conservation of elements and the generating performance standard, and then four environmental benefits A₁-A₄ were defined. The results showed that the installed capacity of thermal power will reach the carbon peak in 2026 under the "carbon peak and neutrality" mode. To achieve the carbon neutralization, the installed capacity of thermal power will be reduced by an average of 28 million kilowatts per year after 2026, and the installed capacity of renewable energy generated is required to increase by 154 million kilowatts per year after 2020. Compared with that in the non-"carbon peak and neutrality" mode, the installed capacity of thermal power generation will be greatly reduced, and the installed capacity of renewable energy power generation will be greatly increased under the "carbon peak and neutrality" mode, resulting in huge A₁ and A₂ environmental benefits. In the next four decades, the cumulative emission reductions in CO₂, SO₂, NO, PM, PM₁₀, and PM_2.5 thermal power generation A₁ are predicted to be 6.64×10¹⁰ tons, 1.54×10⁷ tons, 1.55×10⁷ tons, 3.18×10⁶ tons, 1.71×10⁶tons, and 2.23×10⁵ tons, respectively. The cumulative emission reductions of renewable energy power generation A₂ will be 5.77×10¹⁰ tons, 1.64×10⁷ tons, 1.42×10⁷ tons, 2.86×10⁶ tons, 1.54×10⁶ tons, and 2×10⁵ t tons, respectively. Under the "carbon peak and neutrality" mode, compared with those from coal-fired power generation, the environmental benefits A₃ and A₄ produced by the relative cleanliness of renewable energy and nuclear power indicated that the cumulative emission reductions (A₃+A₄) in clean energy power generation of CO₂, SO₂, NO, PM, PM₁₀, and PM_2.5 in the next four decades will be 3.014×10¹¹ tons, 7.292×10⁷ tons, 7.119×10⁷ tons, 1.454×10⁷ tons, 7.827×10⁶tons, and 1.018×10⁶ tons, respectively.