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Universal Epidemic Curve for COVID-19 and Its Usage for Forecasting
Aryan Sharma1, Srujan Sapkal2, Mahendra K Verma1
1Department of Physics, Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, Kanpur, 208016 India.
Transactions of the Indian National Academy of Engineering : an International Journal of Engineering and Technology
|July 15, 2022
Summary
This study developed a universal COVID-19 epidemic curve using data from eight countries. The model forecasts epidemic evolution, showing reasonable agreement with other predictions for India.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Infectious Disease Dynamics
Background:
- The COVID-19 pandemic's first wave saturation in eight nations provides a basis for universal modeling.
- Accurate forecasting of epidemic trajectories is crucial for public health interventions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To construct a universal epidemic curve for COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019).
- To forecast the epidemic's evolution in India using the developed universal curve.
Main Methods:
- A universal epidemic curve was constructed using data from eight countries that reached saturation.
- An eight-degree polynomial was fitted to the universal curve.
- India's COVID-19 data up to January 1, 2021, was used to match the universal curve by minimizing square-root error.
Main Results:
- A universal epidemic curve for COVID-19 was successfully constructed.
- The model forecasted epidemic evolution in India up to February 25, 2021.
- Model predictions showed reasonable proximity to those of the 'supermodel' for India.
Conclusions:
- The constructed universal curve provides a viable model for COVID-19 epidemic forecasting.
- The findings suggest consistency in the early-phase epidemic dynamics across different nations.
- Further validation with real-world data is recommended for refining predictive accuracy.
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