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Nikhil Anand1, A Sabarinath1, S Geetha1

  • 1Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre, Trivandrum, Kerala India.

Transactions of the Indian National Academy of Engineering : an International Journal of Engineering and Technology
|April 16, 2024
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Summary

This study introduces a modified SIR model to predict COVID-19 spread in India, incorporating testing and quarantine data. The model suggests Kerala can control the pandemic by July, but India requires continued lockdown due to R0 > 1.

Keywords:
COVID-19IndiaKeralaPandemicQuarantineSIR ModelTesting

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical modeling
  • Infectious disease dynamics

Background:

  • COVID-19 pandemic necessitated public health interventions like nationwide lockdowns in India.
  • Compartmental models, such as the SIR model, are crucial for understanding disease transmission.
  • Standard SIR models often assume homogenous population mixing, which may not reflect real-world scenarios.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose a modified SIR model accounting for tested and quarantined infected individuals.
  • To overcome the homogenous mixing assumption of conventional SIR models.
  • To analyze the impact of India's COVID-19 lockdown and predict future pandemic trajectories.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a modified SIR model incorporating testing and quarantine rates.
  • Utilized COVID-19 case data from Kerala and India up to April/May 2020.
  • Formulated parameter estimation as an optimization problem using a least squared cost function.
  • Employed a differential evolution optimizer to solve the optimization problem.

Main Results:

  • The modified model provides a more realistic approach to disease modeling by addressing homogenous mixing.
  • Analysis quantified the impact of the lockdown on infection trends.
  • Model predictions indicate successful pandemic control in Kerala by early July with interventions.
  • The basic reproduction number (R0) for India remained above 1, suggesting ongoing transmission risk.

Conclusions:

  • The modified SIR model offers improved predictions for infectious disease dynamics.
  • Continued lockdown measures across India are advisable to control the spread of COVID-19.
  • Targeted interventions can lead to pandemic control, as exemplified by Kerala's projected trajectory.