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Barents-Kara sea-ice decline attributed to surface warming in the Gulf Stream
Yoko Yamagami1, Masahiro Watanabe2, Masato Mori3
1Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan. y.yamagami@jamstec.go.jp.
Nature Communications
|July 15, 2022
Summary
Climate models underestimate the Barents-Kara Sea ice decline. Constraining Gulf Stream sea surface temperature variability improves simulations, revealing its crucial role in Arctic sea ice loss.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Oceanography
- Arctic Studies
Background:
- Arctic amplification and sea-ice decline are critical climate change indicators.
- The Barents-Kara Sea is a key region for Arctic climate dynamics.
- Existing climate models often underestimate past sea-ice concentration (SIC) trends in this region.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the underestimation of Barents-Kara Sea ice decline in CMIP6 models.
- To identify factors influencing the accuracy of simulated sea-ice concentration (SIC) trends.
- To assess the role of the Gulf Stream's sea surface temperature (SST) variability in driving Arctic sea ice changes.
Main Methods:
- Utilizing Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate model simulations.
- Constraining sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the Gulf Stream region with observational data.
- Analyzing linear trends and correlations between sea-ice concentration (SIC) and SST in the Barents-Kara Sea.
Main Results:
- Climate model simulations accurately reproduced the Barents-Kara SIC trend from 1970-2017 when Gulf Stream SST variability was observationally constrained.
- Constrained Gulf Stream warming was shown to enhance ocean heat transport to the Barents-Kara Sea, accelerating SIC decline.
- The externally forced component of Gulf Stream SST increase explained up to 56% of the forced Barents-Kara SIC trend.
Conclusions:
- Gulf Stream SST variability is a critical factor in accurately simulating Arctic sea-ice decline.
- Strengthening of the Gulf Stream's warming trend can significantly accelerate Barents-Kara Sea ice loss.
- Future Gulf Stream warming may act as a key pacemaker for Arctic sea-ice decline, impacting global climate.
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