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Area of Science:

  • Health Human Resources
  • Healthcare Policy
  • Geriatric Care Workforce Planning

Background:

  • The long-term care (LTC) sector in Ontario faces increasing demand for care.
  • Accurate workforce projections are crucial for sustainable healthcare delivery.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and present a forecasting model for key healthcare professionals in Ontario's LTC sector.
  • To project the future supply and demand for personal support workers (PSWs), registered nurses (RNs), and registered practical nurses (RPNs).

Main Methods:

  • Development of a forecasting model specific to PSWs, RNs, and RPNs.
  • Analysis of projected workforce needs against expected supply in the LTC sector.

Main Results:

  • A projected shortfall in the supply of full-time equivalent (FTE) workers by 2035 under the base-case scenario.
  • Estimated deficits: 11,632 FTE PSWs, 6,031 FTE RNs, and 10,178 FTE RPNs needed by 2035.

Conclusions:

  • Significant workforce increases are required in Ontario's LTC sector to meet future care demands.
  • Findings have critical implications for health human resources policy and planning.