Predictive scoring system for risk of complications in pediatric dengue infection

Background: Dengue infection has been a worrisome cause of mortality and morbidity in children. Though numerous scoring systems have been developed, they are in the adult population or are too complicated for use in children. Pediatric dengue infection has a wide spectrum from a mild illness to severe complications and an unpredictable course. Hence the need for a predictive scoring system where the possibility of complications can be identified which can contribute to reduction in mortality and morbidity of dengue by prompt referrals and anticipatory management. Methods: Prospective case cohort study of children with confirmed dengue fever. Results: 303 children were included and divided into two groups - the dengue fever group and the complicated dengue group based on the WHO clinical classification. The clinical and laboratory parameters were analysed individually, cut offs identified by ROC curves and compared for significance between the two groups. The parameters that emerged were hypotension, PCV ≥ 42%, platelet count ≤ 75000 cells/cumm, WBC ≥ 7000 cells/cumm, and ALT ≥ 70U/L.  Using the adjusted odd's Ratio, and coefficient, individual predictive scores were tabulated ranging from 0 to 3, with a total score of 0 to 7. A cut-off score of 2 was then identified based upon the sensitivity (84.13%) and specificity (72.50%) as the ideal score to predict complicated dengue. Internal validation of the score was done where the area under the curve for predicting complicated dengue was 0.86 (95% CI 0.8-0.92) with a P value of <0.001. Conclusion: Our dengue predictive scoring system has been developed using five indicators, with a score of two and above, out of seven, suggesting increased risk of developing complications. This has been validated internally and can be used to predict complicated dengue among children.