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Future coastal flooding will worsen due to combined tropical cyclone (TC) changes and sea-level rise (SLR). Ignoring their correlation underestimates flood risk, particularly along the US coast.

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Area of Science:

  • Climate Science
  • Oceanography
  • Coastal Engineering

Background:

  • Future coastal flood hazard is influenced by tropical cyclone (TC) activity and relative sea-level rise (SLR).
  • These factors are often assessed independently, despite shared climate drivers.
  • Understanding their joint influence is crucial for accurate hazard assessment.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate correlations between SLR and TC changes using CMIP6 model simulations.
  • To assess the impact of these joint changes on coastal flood hazard.
  • To highlight the importance of considering coupled climate impacts.

Main Methods:

  • Analyzed correlations between SLR and TC activity proxies (potential intensity and vertical wind shear) from 26 CMIP6 models.
  • Utilized climatological-hydrodynamic modeling at five US East and Gulf Coast sites.
  • Evaluated flood hazard projections under different emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5).

Main Results:

  • Strong positive correlations found between SLR and PI change, and negative correlations with vertical wind shear in key regions (WNA, NWP).
  • Global Mean Surface Air Temperature (GSAT) modulates these co-variabilities.
  • Joint changes significantly alter flood hazard projections, underestimating risk by up to 12% at Wilmington when correlations are ignored.

Conclusions:

  • Flood hazard assessments must account for the coupled influence of SLR and TC changes.
  • Neglecting these correlations leads to inaccurate projections of future coastal flood risk.
  • Accurate assessments require considering the full distribution of climate variables like GSAT.