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Application of Distributed Agent-based Modeling to Investigate Opioid Use Outcomes in Justice Involved Populations.

Eric Tatara1,2, John Schneider3, Madeline Quasebarth3

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IEEE International Symposium on Parallel & Distributed Processing, Workshops and Phd Forum : [Proceedings]. IEEE International Symposium on Parallel & Distributed Processing, Workshops and Phd Forum
|July 22, 2022
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Individuals with opioid use disorder (OUD) recently released from jail face high overdose risks. A new Justice-Community Circulation Model (JCCM) simulation shows naloxone interventions can significantly reduce these deaths.

Keywords:
Bayesian calibrationHPC workflowagent-based modelinghigh-performance computing

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Area of Science:

  • Public Health
  • Epidemiology
  • Computational Modeling

Background:

  • Individuals involved in the criminal justice system with a history of opioid use disorder (OUD) experience elevated mortality risks, particularly in the weeks following jail release.
  • Opioid overdose deaths remain a critical public health crisis, necessitating effective intervention strategies for vulnerable populations.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate the Justice-Community Circulation Model (JCCM) for simulating opioid use disorder dynamics among criminal justice-involved individuals post-release.
  • To evaluate the potential impact of interventions, specifically naloxone distribution, on reducing overdose fatalities in this high-risk group.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a synthetic agent-based model population (approx. 150,000 individuals) using demographic data from Chicago-area studies.
  • Implementation of a high-performance computing (HPC) workflow with sequential approximate Bayesian computation for model calibration.
  • Simulation of a naloxone intervention scenario targeting recently released jail inmates.

Main Results:

  • The calibrated JCCM successfully simulated the joint posterior distribution of model parameters.
  • Simulation results indicated that a targeted naloxone intervention for recently released jail inmates can substantially decrease the risk of opioid overdose death.
  • The model quantifies the potential life-saving impact of such public health interventions.

Conclusions:

  • The Justice-Community Circulation Model (JCCM) provides a valuable tool for understanding and mitigating overdose risks in criminal justice-involved populations with OUD.
  • Targeted naloxone distribution upon jail release is a feasible and effective strategy to reduce opioid overdose mortality.
  • Computational modeling can inform public health policy and resource allocation for overdose prevention.