Research on Nickel Material Trade Redistribution Strategy Based on the Maximum Entropy Principle.

Area of Science:

• Materials Science
• Economics
• International Trade

Background:

• The global push for new energy vehicles and battery high nickelization is increasing demand for nickel resources.
• Geopolitical conflicts, emergencies, and capital speculation pose significant price and supply security risks to the global nickel market.

Purpose of the Study:

• To construct a nickel material trade network and identify core trading countries and relationships.
• To develop a trade redistribution model based on the maximum entropy principle to address supply risks.
• To simulate nickel material redistribution scenarios under different supply risks, using Indonesia-China trade as a case study.

Main Methods:

• Construction of a nickel material trade network to map global trade flows.
• Identification of key trading nations and primary trade relationships within the nickel market.
• Development and application of a maximum entropy-based trade redistribution model.
• Simulation of trade redistribution strategies under various supply disruption scenarios.

Main Results:

• Nickel material trade is concentrated among a few key countries.
• The model successfully simulates potential trade redistributions in response to supply risks.
• Indonesia, as the largest exporter, and the Indonesia-China trade route are critical nodes in the network.

Conclusions:

• The study provides an objective strategy for trade redistribution to mitigate nickel supply risks.
• Findings offer crucial insights for national resource recovery and strategic planning in the face of trade uncertainties.
• The developed model serves as a valuable tool for navigating the complexities of the global nickel market.