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Published on: June 10, 2025
When Outcomes Diverge: Age and Cardiovascular Risk as Determinants of Mortality and ICU Admission in COVID-19
Marco Ranucci1, Gianfranco Parati2, Umberto Di Dedda1
1Department of Cardiovascular Anesthesia and ICU, IRCCS Policlinico San Donato, 20097 San Donato Milanese, Italy.
Insights
Heart failure independently predicts mortality in COVID-19 patients, even after accounting for age. Elderly patients were less likely to be admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU), possibly due to resource limitations during the pandemic.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Infectious Diseases
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Hospital mortality and Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission are key indicators of COVID-19 severity.
- Cardiovascular comorbidities significantly influence negative outcomes in COVID-19 patients.
- The first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the critical impact of comorbidities on patient outcomes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the impact of cardiovascular comorbidities on mortality and ICU admission in COVID-19 patients during the first wave.
- To identify specific cardiovascular risk factors associated with adverse outcomes.
- To analyze the relationship between pre-existing conditions and disease severity.
Main Methods:
- A multicenter, retrospective cohort study involving 1077 COVID-19 patients.
- Analysis of mortality and ICU admission as primary outcomes.
- Exploration of cardiovascular risk factors as determinants of outcomes, with adjustment for confounders.
Main Results:
- A history of heart failure was independently associated with increased mortality (HR 2.22, p=0.0013) after adjusting for age.
- Age was a significant predictor of mortality, with an 8% increase in risk per year (HR 1.08, p=0.001).
- Older age was associated with a decreased likelihood of ICU admission (HR 0.96, p=0.0002).
Conclusions:
- Heart failure is a significant independent predictor of mortality in COVID-19 patients, beyond age.
- Elderly patients were less likely to be admitted to the ICU, suggesting potential resource allocation or triage decisions during the pandemic's peak.
- These findings underscore the importance of managing cardiovascular health in the context of COVID-19 and highlight potential disparities in critical care access.
Background:
Hospital mortality and admission to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) are markers of disease severity in COVID-19 patients. Cardiovascular co-morbidities are one of the main determinants of negative outcomes. In this study we investigated the impact of cardiovascular co-morbidities on mortality and admission to the ICU in first-wave COVID-19 patients.
Methods:
A multicenter, retrospective, cohort study. A total of 1077 patients were analyzed for mortality and ICU admission. Cardiovascular risk factors were explored as determinants of the outcomes after correction for other confounders.
Results:
In the multivariable model, after correction for age, only a history of heart failure remained independently associated (p = 0.0013) with mortality (hazard ratio 2.22, 95% confidence interval 1.37 to 3.62). Age showed a mortality risk increase of 8% per year (hazard ratio 1.08, 95% confidence interval 1.05 to 1.10, p = 0.001). The transition from ward to the ICU had, as a single determinant, the age, but in a reversed fashion (hazard ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.94 to 0.98, p = 0.0002).
Conclusions:
Once adjusted for the main determinant of mortality (age) heart failure only remained independently associated with mortality. Admission to the ICU was less likely for elderly patients. This may reflect the catastrophic impact of the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in terms of ICU bed availability in Lombardy, leading to a selection process for ICU admission.
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