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Demography: Fast and Slow.

Francesco C Billari

    Population and Development Review
    |August 1, 2022
    PubMed
    Summary

    Demography can change rapidly, not just slowly. This study introduces population turnover rates, revealing migration

    Area of Science:

    • Population dynamics and demographic change
    • Sociology and social sciences
    • Global population studies

    Background:

    • Traditional demographic models often assume slow, predictable population changes.
    • These models primarily focus on fertility and mortality rates.
    • The influence of migration on demographic speed is frequently underestimated.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To empirically assess the speed of population change at the country level.
    • To incorporate migratory movements alongside fertility and mortality in demographic analysis.
    • To present new global estimates of population turnover rates and the role of migration.

    Main Methods:

    • Calculation of country-level population turnover rates between 1990 and 2020.
    • Quantification of the proportion of population turnover attributable to migration.
    Keywords:
    fast demographymigration share of turnoverpopulation turnover rateslow demography

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  • Longitudinal analysis of annual turnover data for Italy and Germany.

    • Main Results:

    • Population turnover is inversely related to population size and level of development.
    • Migration plays a significant role in demographic change for small and highly developed countries.
    • Analysis of Italy and Germany shows varying speeds of population change and its drivers over time.

    Conclusions:

    • Demographic change can be rapid, challenging the 'slow demography' paradigm.
    • Migration is a key driver of population dynamics, especially in specific country contexts.
    • Adopting a 'fast and slow' demography perspective has significant implications for scientific understanding and policy-making.