A time-series approach to mapping livestock density using household survey data

Area of Science:

• Veterinary Epidemiology
• Geospatial Analysis
• Livestock Management

Background:

• Livestock are vital for livelihoods but pose disease transmission and climate change risks.
• Existing large-scale livestock distribution data are primarily from the Gridded Livestock of the World (GLW) project.
• Accurate livestock distribution mapping is essential for disease control and resource management.

Purpose of the Study:

• To create a high-resolution, time-series map of cattle and pig distribution in Malawi, Uganda, DRC, and South Sudan.
• To develop a complementary mapping effort to the existing Gridded Livestock of the World (GLW) project.
• To define livestock density as the ratio of animals to humans for zoonotic disease research.

Main Methods:

• Utilized complex survey data and distinct modeling methods for livestock distribution.
• Generated a time-series of livestock distribution data.
• Defined livestock density as animals per human ratio.

Main Results:

• Produced high-resolution, time-series livestock distribution maps for the study region.
• Achieved favorable cross-validation results and agreement with national density estimates.
• Demonstrated strong agreement with GLW-3 estimates, supporting the validity of both mapping efforts.

Conclusions:

• The developed livestock distribution maps provide valuable, high-resolution data for the selected African countries.
• The novel definition of livestock density is particularly useful for studying livestock-origin zoonoses.
• This work complements existing efforts and validates the utility of multiple approaches for livestock mapping.