Adapting to heatwave-induced seagrass loss: Prioritizing management areas through environmental sensitivity mapping

Area of Science:

• Marine ecology
• Climate change impacts
• Ecosystem services

Background:

• Seagrass meadows (Posidonia oceanica) are vital ecosystems providing socio-economic benefits.
• Anthropogenic pressures and climate change-induced marine heatwaves (MHWs) threaten seagrass survival.
• MHWs are an increasing threat to marine biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess the consequences of MHWs on Posidonia oceanica ecosystem services.
• To map the spatial distribution of societal risks associated with seagrass loss.
• To inform policy for mitigating and adapting to MHW impacts on coastal communities.

Main Methods:

• Application of the Mapping Environmentally Sensitive Assets (MESA) approach.
• Modeling MHW impacts under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario.
• Socio-economic risk assessment focusing on fisheries and coastal hazards.

Main Results:

• Mediterranean MHWs are projected to intensify by 2050, increasing P. oceanica mortality.
• Societal risks of seagrass loss are unevenly distributed across the Mediterranean.
• Tunisia and Libya exhibit high sensitivity to fishery loss; Italy, Tunisia, and Cyprus face risks to coastal protection.

Conclusions:

• MHWs pose significant threats to seagrass ecosystem services and dependent coastal communities.
• Environmental sensitivity mapping can identify high-risk areas for targeted conservation and policy interventions.
• Urgent policy measures are needed to mitigate MHW impacts and support adaptation strategies.