A Novel Biomarker Scoring System Alone or in Combination with the GRACE Score for the Prognostic Assessment in...

The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score has proven value in predicting short-term prognosis in non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI), but it has only moderate discrimination for long-term outcomes. The purpose of this study is to develop and test a multi-biomarker score for better risk stratification and indication of 2-year risk in patients with NSTEMI.

A total of 6076 consecutive patients with NSTEMI (66 [59-73] years, 73.1% males) admitted at Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University were collected in this observational, prospective study between 2012 and 2018 with a 24-month follow-up. The primary endpoint was all-cause death and non-fatal major adverse cardiac events (MACE). A biomarker score ranged from 0 to 12 was constructed. The predictive power of the biomarker score was evaluated alone or combined with the GRACE score by C-statistic, net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination index (IDI).

During a 2-year follow-up, all-cause death occurred in 159 patients (2.6%), and non-fatal MACEs were presented in 709 patients (11.7%). When added to the GRACE score, the biomarker score demonstrated better prognostic accuracy, patient reclassification and risk discrimination for both mortality and non-fatal MACEs at 2 years by improving the C-statistic from 0.714 (0.671-0.756) and 0.623 (0.600-0.646) to 0.851 (0.820-0.882) and 0.721 (0.702-0.741) with NRI >25% (P<0.001) and IDI >0.30 (P<0.001).

The single use of biomarker score could markedly enhance the prognostic value of concurrent risk stratification tools for 2-year mortality and non-fatal MACEs in NSTEMI. The GRACE score with incorporation of the biomarker score led to more accurate risk reclassification and warrants more consideration in further NSTEMI management.