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Incorporating mass vaccination into compartment models for infectious diseases.
1Department of Mathematics, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE 68588-0130, USA.
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering : MBE
|August 9, 2022
Summary
Vaccine hesitancy and supply limits significantly alter infectious disease dynamics. A new Holling type 3 vaccination model better reflects real-world scenarios and impacts public health policy for future pandemics.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Infectious Disease Dynamics
Background:
- Standard infectious disease models assume mass vaccination of susceptible populations.
- COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy, ineligibility, and supply limitations necessitate revised modeling approaches.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and evaluate a more realistic vaccination model accounting for real-world constraints.
- To analyze the impact of vaccine hesitancy and supply limitations on disease dynamics.
- To inform public health policy for future pandemic preparedness.
Main Methods:
- Partitioning susceptible classes into prevaccinated and unprotected groups for endemic models.
- Developing a supply-limited Holling type 3 vaccination model for epidemic dynamics.
- Extending the Holling model to a COVID-19 scenario with risk-stratified vaccination.
Main Results:
- Vaccine refusal/hesitancy significantly impacts endemic disease behavior, especially for short-lived immunity.
- The Holling type 3 model accurately fits vaccination data and shows epidemiological differences from naive models.
- Risk stratification in vaccination strategies leads to distinct public health outcomes.
Conclusions:
- Realistic vaccination modeling is crucial for understanding and managing infectious disease outbreaks.
- The Holling type 3 model provides a valuable tool for policy-making in pandemic scenarios.
- Future public health strategies must account for vaccine hesitancy and supply dynamics.
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