Prediction of labor outcome pilot study: evaluation of primiparous women at term

Emergency operative delivery is associated with high fetal and maternal morbidity and mortality. It is of high importance to find means to predict the delivery mode before the onset of labor.

This study aimed to investigate the potential of combined sonographic and clinical determination to predict the mode of delivery at term.

An observational prospective cohort study was deployed in a tertiary maternity hospital (Emergency County Hospital Craiova). Unselected low-risk primiparous pregnant women were evaluated weekly at term for ultrasound determinations (estimated fetal weight, head descent parameters, occiput posterior, cervical length), Bishop score, and maternal characteristics (age, height, weight). A thorough statistical analysis determined which variables were significantly correlated with the delivery mode.

Data from 276 term primiparous women were analyzed. Head descent parameters were strongly and significantly correlated with each other, but only progression distance was correlated with the delivery mode (gestational weeks 37, 38, 41, and the week before delivery). In the week before delivery, measurements of head-to-perineum distance and angle of progression reached almost significant P levels of.055 and.07, respectively. The following variables were significantly correlated with the delivery mode: body mass index in all term evaluations; progression distance for weeks 37 and 38; maternal age for week 39; Bishop score, estimated fetal weight, and occiput posterior for week 40; and body mass index, estimated fetal weight, and progression distance for the week before delivery. We also provided logistic regression equations for each week with correct delivery mode prediction, except for week 38. Cutoff values were established for each significant parameter per week. The cutoff values must be read in conjunction with the area under the curve, which ranged from 0.55 to 0.73, depending on the variable.

There are strong and significant correlations among the "head descent" ultrasound measurements at term. Body mass index is predictive of labor outcomes throughout term evaluations. Progression distance and body mass index measured at 37 to 38 weeks' gestation correlate with the delivery mode and apparently can be used to forecast the delivery mode when the pregnancy reaches term. For the week before delivery, measurements of estimated fetal weight and progression distance can be used to forecast the delivery mode, perhaps as part of a policy for pregnant women with prelabor clinical signs. Larger studies with more data, particularly better-balanced data, are needed.