Tracking Turnover Among Health Care Workers During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Cross-sectional Study

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Health Services Research
• Epidemiology

Background:

• The COVID-19 pandemic caused significant workforce disruptions in the health care sector, with slow job recovery, especially in long-term care.
• Understanding which health care workers are most at risk of exiting the workforce is crucial for addressing staffing shortages.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify health care workers at the highest risk of leaving the health care workforce during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Main Methods:

• An observational, cross-sectional study using Current Population Survey (CPS) data from January 2019 to October 2021 in the US.
• Compared health care worker turnover rates before the pandemic (preperiod) with two pandemic periods (postperiod 1 and postperiod 2).
• Logistic regression models controlled for various demographic, occupational, and household factors to estimate the probability of workforce exit.

Main Results:

• Overall health care turnover rates peaked in early pandemic (postperiod 1) but largely recovered by late 2021 (postperiod 2).
• Long-term care workers and physicians showed persistently high turnover rates, with a four-fold difference compared to health aides/assistants.
• Higher turnover was observed among workers with young children, particularly women, and persistently among American Indian/Alaska Native/Pacific Islander workers. Black and Latino workers experienced slower job recovery.

Conclusions:

• While the health care workforce shows signs of recovery, specific groups like long-term care workers, health aides, minority ethnic groups, and women with young children face persistent high turnover.
• Targeted strategies are essential for recruiting and retaining workers in high-demand areas, particularly long-term care, to mitigate ongoing workforce challenges.