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Modelling vaccination capacity at mass vaccination hubs and general practice clinics: a simulation study
Mark Hanly1, Tim Churches2,3, Oisín Fitzgerald4
1Centre for Big Data Research in Health, UNSW Sydney, Level 2, AGSM (G27), Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia. m.hanly@unsw.edu.au.
BMC Health Services Research
|August 19, 2022
Summary
Modeling vaccination queues reveals mass vaccination sites can administer 500-1400 doses daily, while general practices handle 100-300. Higher staffing improves site resilience against demand surges.
Area of Science:
- Healthcare Operations Research
- Public Health Informatics
- Epidemiology
Background:
- COVID-19 vaccination programs significantly strain healthcare resources.
- Understanding and optimizing vaccination site operations is crucial for efficient service delivery.
Purpose of the Study:
- To model queueing processes at mass vaccination sites and general practices.
- To estimate waiting times and daily capacity under various operational assumptions.
- To inform strategies for effective vaccine administration and healthcare service planning.
Main Methods:
- Utilized stochastic queue network models to simulate vaccination site dynamics.
- Estimated waiting times and daily throughput based on appointment schedules, service times, and staffing levels.
- Conducted stress tests to evaluate site resilience against increased demand and staff shortages.
- Developed an interactive applet for user-driven scenario exploration.
Main Results:
- Mass vaccination hubs demonstrated daily throughputs from 500 to 1400 doses.
- General practice clinics estimated daily throughputs ranged from 100 to 300 doses.
- Analysis indicated that higher staffing levels enhance site robustness, with mass vaccination sites showing greater resilience than general practices.
Conclusions:
- Mass vaccination remains essential for ongoing COVID-19 booster campaigns and maximizing population coverage.
- Stochastic queue networks provide a flexible and efficient method for simulating vaccination queues.
- Modeling results inform service delivery by estimating waiting times and throughput, aiding in optimizing vaccination strategies.
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