Research on the Relationship between Urban Agricultural Nonpoint Source Pollution and Rural Residents' Income Growth.

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Agricultural Economics
• Regional Planning

Background:

• Urban agricultural nonpoint source pollution (UANSP) presents challenges for environmental quality and rural economic development.
• Understanding the nexus between UANSP and rural income is crucial for sustainable development strategies.
• Shanghai's agricultural sector provides a relevant case study for analyzing these dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

• To dynamically analyze the interaction between UANSP and rural residents' income levels in Shanghai.
• To examine the impact effects and explanatory contributions of different UANSP factors on income.
• To inform policy interventions for controlling UANSP and enhancing rural livelihoods.

Main Methods:

• Utilized agricultural statistical data from Shanghai spanning 1998-2019.
• Applied the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) and Vector Autoregression (VAR) models.
• Dynamically analyzed the interrelationships and impact effects of key variables.

Main Results:

• An inverted "N" curve relationship was observed between plastic film application intensity and rural income.
• Fertilizer and pesticide application intensity showed a linear decreasing relationship with rural income.
• UANSP emissions decrease with rising rural income; pollution reduction has short-term income benefits but long-term negative effects.

Conclusions:

• Plastic film intensity strongly drives rural income, unlike fertilizer and pesticides.
• Policy should address UANSP from both short-term and long-term perspectives.
• Long-term strategies include promoting ecological agriculture and improving monitoring; short-term measures involve subsidies and technical assistance.