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Area of Science:

  • Scientific funding and evaluation processes.
  • Research integrity and peer review mechanisms.
  • Risk assessment in scientific research proposals.

Background:

  • Peer review is crucial for grant funding but can be influenced by subjective biases.
  • Reviewers may favor lower-risk, incremental projects over potentially groundbreaking, high-risk research.
  • The role of risk tolerance in peer review has not been extensively studied.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate how risk and weakness in research proposals influence reviewer scores.
  • To determine the impact of reviewer risk tolerance and leniency on evaluation outcomes.
  • To understand the sources of variability in peer review scoring.

Main Methods:

  • A cross-sectional experiment was conducted using mock primary reviewer comments.
  • The levels and sources of risks and weaknesses in mock proposals were systematically manipulated.
  • Peer reviewers evaluated these mock comments to assess their scoring behavior.

Main Results:

  • Proposal risks had a stronger impact on reviewer scores than proposal strengths.
  • Reviewer scoring leniency, not risk tolerance, predicted overall and criteria scores.
  • Risk evaluation significantly influences reviewers' judgments and contributes to score variability.

Conclusions:

  • The interpretation of proposal risks is a primary driver of variability in peer review scoring.
  • Interventions could improve the reliability of peer review by addressing risk interpretation.
  • The strong valuation of risk may hinder support for high-impact, but risky, scientific endeavors.