Estimating the undetected infections in the Monkeypox outbreak
Antonello Maruotti1, Dankmar Böhning2, Irene Rocchetti3
1Department GEPLI, Libera Università Ss Maria Assunta, Rome, Italy.
Journal of Medical Virology
|August 27, 2022
Summary
Estimating undetected Monkeypox (MPX) cases is crucial for controlling the spread. This study developed a method to estimate the true number of Monkeypox infections, revealing significantly more cases than officially reported in many countries.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Infectious Disease Modeling
Background:
- The global spread of Monkeypox (MPX) necessitates understanding the full scope of infections.
- Reported case numbers may underestimate the true prevalence due to undetected infections.
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate the total number of Monkeypox infections, including both detected and undetected cases, in key affected countries.
- To provide a data-driven lower bound estimate for the true Monkeypox case count.
Main Methods:
- Development of a lower bound estimator for true Monkeypox cases.
- Utilizing cumulative distributions of weekly Monkeypox case data.
- Analysis focused on the ratio of estimated total cases to observed cases as of July 31, 2022.
Main Results:
- Undetected Monkeypox cases were significant across all studied countries.
- In some countries, the estimated true number of infections was over three times the observed number.
- The proportion of undetected cases varied, indicating different epidemic dynamics.
Conclusions:
- The study offers a practical method for estimating the true burden of Monkeypox infections.
- Findings highlight the substantial number of undetected Monkeypox cases, impacting transmission dynamics.
- This research aids in a better understanding of the ongoing Monkeypox epidemic and informs public health strategies.
