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Theoretical attributable risk analysis and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) based on increased dairy
Sarah S Cohen1, Lauren C Bylsma2, Naimisha Movva2
1EpidStrategies, a division of ToxStrategies, Inc., 1249 Kildaire Farm Road #134, Cary, NC, 27511, USA. scohen@epidstrategies.com.
BMC Public Health
|August 27, 2022
Summary
Increasing dairy intake could prevent substantial disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in the US. This includes significant reductions in cardiovascular disease (CVD) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) burden, highlighting dairy
Area of Science:
- Public Health Nutrition
- Chronic Disease Epidemiology
- Nutritional Epidemiology
Background:
- Identifying modifiable risk factors for chronic diseases is crucial for public health initiatives.
- Low dairy intake is a potential risk factor contributing to the burden of chronic diseases.
- Understanding the impact of dairy consumption on population health is essential.
Purpose of the Study:
- To conduct a theoretical population attributable risk analysis.
- To estimate the disease burden associated with low dairy intake in the US.
- To quantify the potential impact of increased dairy consumption on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).
Main Methods:
- Comprehensive literature review to identify summary relative risk estimates (SRREs) for dairy consumption and chronic diseases.
- Application of SRREs to preventive fractions based on population dairy consumption categories.
- Calculation of population attributable risk proportions and estimation of DALYs using WHO 2019 data.
Main Results:
- Statistically significant associations found between dairy intake and reduced risk of breast cancer, colorectal cancer, cardiovascular disease (CVD), type 2 diabetes (T2D), stroke, and hypertension.
- Increased dairy consumption could potentially prevent approximately 850,000 DALYs for CVD and 200,000 DALYs for T2D.
- Substantial DALYs for breast cancer (~100,000), colorectal cancer (~120,000), stroke (~210,000), and hypertension (~74,000) could also be prevented.
Conclusions:
- Dairy consumption is linked to a decreased risk of several major chronic diseases.
- Increasing dairy intake to meet recommended goals could significantly reduce the overall burden of disease and improve public health.
- Further empirical studies are needed to validate these theoretical findings and clarify the dairy-disease relationships.
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