Survival Prediction in Home Hospice Care Patients with Lung Cancer Based on LASSO Algorithm

The aim of the present study was to develop a nomogram for prognostic prediction of patients with lung cancer in hospice.

The data was collected from 1106 lung cancer patients in hospice between January 2008 and December 2018. The data were split into a training set, which was used to identify the most important prognostic factors by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and to build the nomogram, while the testing set was used to validate the nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was assessed by c-index, calibration curve and the decision curve analysis (DCA).

A total of 1106 patients, including 835 (75%) from the training set and 271 (25%) from testing set, were retrospectively analyzed in this study. Using the LASSO regression, 5 most important prognostic predictors that included sex, Karnofsky Performance Scale (KPS), quality-of-life (QOL), edema and anorexia, were selected out of 28 variables. Validated c-indexes of training set at 15, 30, and 90 days were .778 [.737-.818], .776 [.743-.809], and .751 [.713-.790], respectively. Similarly, the validated c-indexes of testing set at 15, 30, and 90 days were .789 [.714-.864], .748 [.685-.811], and .757 [.691-.823], respectively. The nomogram-predicted survival was well calibrated, as the predicted probabilities were close to the expected probabilities. Moreover, the DCA curve showed that nomogram received superior standardized net benefit at a broad threshold.

The study built a non-lab nomogram with important predictor to analyze the clinical parameters using LASSO. It may be a useful tool to allow clinicians to easily estimate the prognosis of the patients with lung cancer in hospice.