Related Experiment Video
Updated: Aug 30, 2025
Estimating Bilateral Atrial Function by Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance Feature Tracking in Patients with Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation
Published on: July 20, 2022
Nomogram predicts atrial fibrillation after coronary artery bypass grafting
Jingshuai Gong1, Yangyan Wei1, Qian Zhang1
1Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, 16 Jiangsu Road, Qingdao, 266003, China.
Insights
This study developed two nomograms to predict atrial fibrillation after coronary artery bypass grafting. These tools help identify high-risk patients for early intervention and protective therapy.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Cardiac Surgery
- Medical Informatics
Background:
- Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common complication after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG).
- Predicting postoperative AF is crucial for timely intervention and improved patient outcomes.
- Current prediction methods may lack intuitive usability for clinical practice.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate nomograms for predicting atrial fibrillation (AF) following coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG).
- To identify independent predictors of postoperative AF.
- To provide a tool for identifying high-risk patients who may benefit from preoperative protective therapy.
Main Methods:
- A cohort of 397 patients undergoing isolated CABG was analyzed.
- Multivariate logistic regression identified independent predictors of postoperative AF.
- Two nomograms were constructed: one using all predictor variables and a brief version using only preoperative variables.
Main Results:
- The incidence of postoperative AF was 29%.
- Key predictors included age, operative time > 4 hours, left atrial diameter > 40 mm, mean arterial pressure, BMI > 23 kg/m², and use of insulins and statins.
- The comprehensive nomogram showed an AUC of 0.727, and the brief nomogram showed an AUC of 0.707, both validated internally.
Conclusions:
- The developed nomograms effectively predict the risk of atrial fibrillation after isolated coronary artery bypass grafting.
- These tools can aid clinicians in identifying high-risk individuals.
- Early identification facilitates the implementation of preoperative protective strategies.
Objective:
Using the nomogram to intuitively predict atrial fibrillation after coronary artery bypass grafting. Identify high-risk patients with atrial fibrillation and provide preoperative protective therapy.
Methods:
A total of 397 patients that underwent coronary artery bypass grafting were consecutively enrolled. Independent predictors of patients were analyzed by multivariate logistic regression. Two nomograms were constructed to predict postoperative atrial fibrillation.
Results:
The incidence of postoperative atrial fibrillation in this study was 29% (115/397). Multivariate Logistic showed that Age, Operative Time > 4 h, Left Atrial Diameter > 40 mm, Mean Arterial Pressure, Body Mass Index > 23 kg/m2, Insulins, and Statins were independently associated with atrial fibrillation after isolated coronary artery bypass grafting. The nomogram of postoperative atrial fibrillation in patients was constructed using total predictor variables (AUC = 0.727, 95% CI 0.673-0.781). The model was internally validated (AUC = 0.701) by K-fold Cross-validation resampling (K = 5, Times = 400). To make an early intervention, the intraoperative information of the patients was excluded. Only 6 variables before surgery were used to establish the brief nomogram to predict postoperative atrial fibrillation (AUC = 0.707, 95% CI 0.651-0.764). The brief model was internally validated (AUC = 0.683) by resampling with K-fold Cross-validation resampling.
Conclusions:
These two nomograms could be used to predict patients at high risk for atrial fibrillation after isolated coronary artery bypass grafting.
