Lipid-Based Factors: A Promising New Biomarker for Predicting Prognosis and Conditional Survival Probability in...

Abnormalities in lipid metabolism play a vital role in the development of cancer. This retrospective study aimed to evaluate the survival prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in terms of (free fatty acid: high-density lipoproteins) ratio (FF-HL) and to compare it with conditional probability and annual death hazard.

Patients (n=300) were enrolled. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to determine the predictive ability of survival. Survival probabilities were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and Log rank tests were performed for statistical significance.

The area under the ROC curve for FF-HL, which predicts overall survival (OS), was superior to other markers. Patients in the high FF-HL (>840.3) showed poorer OS and progress-free survival (PFS). In multivariable analysis, FF-HL was an independent marker in predicting OS. Younger people and those with intrahepatic metastasis in higher FF-HL groups, as well as older men without vascular invasion in higher AHLR groups showed shorter OS and PFS. 3-year conditional disease-free survival (CDFS₃) was slightly higher than those with actuarial survival. The death risk for 3-year conditional OS (COS₃) was stable in the group with low FF-HL and (albumin: high-density lipoproteins) ratio (AHLR) and more pronounced in high subgroups. However, risk stratification using the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer approach and Child-Pugh score might not accurately predict COS₃.

FF-HL and AHLR are not only promising biomarkers in terms of predictive ability of OS and PFS but also provide time-dependent prognostic information for HCC patients.