Modeling and validation of oviposition by a polyphagous insect pest as a function of temperature and host plant...

Modeling oviposition as a function of female insect age, temperature, and host plant suitability may provide valuable insight into insect population growth of polyphagous insect pests at a landscape level. In this study, we quantified oviposition by beet leafhoppers, Circulifer (= Neoaliturus) tenellus (Baker) (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae), on four common non-agricultural host plant species [Erodium cicutarium (L.) L'Hér. (Geraniaceae), Kochia scoparia (L.) Schrader (Amaranthaceae), Plantago ovata Forsskál (Plantaginaceae), and Salsola tragus L. (Amaranthaceae)] at two constant temperature conditions. Additionally, temperature-based oviposition models for each host plant species were validated, under semi-field and greenhouse conditions. We found that K. scoparia was the most suitable host plant, and optimal temperature for oviposition was estimated to be 30.6°C. Accordingly, beet leafhoppers appear to be well-adapted to high-temperature conditions, so increasing temperatures due to climate change may favor population growth in non-agricultural areas. Maximum total fecundity (Rm) was used as an indicator of relative suitability of host plants. S. tragus has been considered an important non-agricultural host plant, however, we found that S. tragus and E. cicutarium have lower Rm compared to K. scoparia and P. ovata. The combination of detailed experimental oviposition bioassays, modeling, and model validation is considered widely relevant and applicable to host plant assessments and modeling of population dynamics of other polyphagous insect pests.