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Staying home saves lives, really!

Maurizio Malpede1, Soheil Shayegh2

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Shelter-in-place orders during the COVID-19 pandemic led to significant crime reduction in San Francisco neighborhoods. While theft and homicide dropped, domestic violence and weapon offenses remained unaffected by the lockdown.

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Area of Science:

  • Criminology
  • Public Health
  • Urban Studies

Background:

  • The COVID-19 pandemic prompted widespread government-imposed social restrictions, including quarantine and shelter-in-place orders.
  • These measures aimed to curb virus transmission but had potential secondary effects on public safety and crime rates.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the immediate, unintended effects of shelter-in-place orders on various crime categories.
  • To analyze these effects at a granular neighborhood level, rather than broader city or state levels.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized daily crime report data from the United States.
  • Employed fine-grained spatial analysis focusing on neighborhood-level units.
  • Conducted analysis to assess crime trends one month post-restriction implementation.

Main Results:

  • San Francisco experienced an estimated 10-20% point decrease in total crimes one month after shelter-in-place orders.
  • Significant reductions were observed in theft, homicide, and traffic accidents.
  • Domestic violence incidents and weapon possession offenses showed no significant change.

Conclusions:

  • Shelter-in-place policies had a notable impact on reducing certain crime types.
  • The effects varied across crime categories, with some unaffected by the restrictions.
  • Findings highlight the complex relationship between public health interventions and crime patterns.