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Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points
David I Armstrong McKay1,2,3,4, Arie Staal1,2,5, Jesse F Abrams3
1Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|September 8, 2022
Summary
Climate tipping points, critical thresholds in Earth's system, are increasingly near with current warming. Urgent climate change mitigation is needed to avoid severe impacts from these self-perpetuating changes.
Area of Science:
- Climate science
- Earth system science
- Paleoclimatology
Background:
- Climate tipping points represent critical thresholds where small perturbations can trigger self-perpetuating, substantial Earth system impacts.
- Current global warming of approximately 1.1°C above preindustrial levels is approaching the lower uncertainty bounds for some tipping points.
Purpose of the Study:
- To provide a revised synthesis of global and regional climate tipping elements and their associated temperature thresholds.
- To assess the risk of triggering tipping points under different global warming scenarios, including the Paris Agreement range and current policy trajectories.
Main Methods:
- Synthesizing findings from paleoclimate records.
- Integrating data from observational climate studies.
- Utilizing climate model-based research.
Main Results:
- A revised shortlist of global "core" and regional "impact" tipping elements has been identified.
- Several tipping points may be triggered within the 1.5°C to 2°C warming range outlined in the Paris Agreement.
- Numerous tipping points are likely to be activated at 2°C to 3°C warming, consistent with current policy projections.
Conclusions:
- The evidence base for urgent climate change mitigation is strengthened.
- Improved risk assessment, early warning systems, and adaptation strategies for tipping points are crucial.
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