PM_2.5 Concentrations Variability in North China Explored with a Multi-Scale Spatial Random Effect Model

Compiling fine-resolution geospatial PM_2.5 concentrations data is essential for precisely assessing the health risks of PM_2.5 pollution exposure as well as for evaluating environmental policy effectiveness. In most previous studies, global and local spatial heterogeneity of PM_2.5 is captured by the inclusion of multi-scale covariate effects, while the modelling of genuine scale-dependent variabilities pertaining to the spatial random process of PM_2.5 has not yet been much studied. Consequently, this work proposed a multi-scale spatial random effect model (MSSREM), based a recently developed fixed-rank Kriging method, to capture both the scale-dependent variabilities and the spatial dependence effect simultaneously. Furthermore, a small-scale Monte Carlo simulation experiment was conducted to assess the performance of MSSREM against classic geospatial Kriging models. The key results indicated that when the multiple-scale property of local spatial variabilities were exhibited, the MSSREM had greater ability to recover local- or fine-scale variations hidden in a real spatial process. The methodology was applied to the PM_2.5 concentrations modelling in North China, a region with the worst air quality in the country. The MSSREM provided high prediction accuracy, 0.917 R-squared, and 3.777 root mean square error (RMSE). In addition, the spatial correlations in PM_2.5 concentrations were properly captured by the model as indicated by a statistically insignificant Moran's I statistic (a value of 0.136 with p-value > 0.2). Overall, this study offers another spatial statistical model for investigating and predicting PM_2.5 concentration, which would be beneficial for precise health risk assessment of PM_2.5 pollution exposure.