Dynamics of anti-SARS-CoV-2 seroconversion in individual patients and at the population level

The immune response and specific antibody production in COVID-19 are among the key factors that determine both prognostics for individual patients and the global perspective for controlling the pandemics. So called "dark figure", that is, a part of population that has been infected but not registered by the health care system, make it difficult to estimate herd immunity and to predict pandemic trajectories. Here we present a follow up study of population screening for hidden herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in individuals who had never been positively diagnosed against SARS-CoV-2; the first screening was in May 2021, and the follow up in December 2021. We found that specific antibodies targeting SARS-CoV-2 detected in May as the "dark figure" cannot be considered important 7 months later due to their significant drop. On the other hand, among participants who at the first screening were negative for anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG, and who have never been diagnosed for SARS-CoV-2 infection nor vaccinated, 26% were found positive for anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG. This can be attributed to of the "dark figure" of the recent, fourth wave of the pandemic that occurred in Poland shortly before the study in December. Participants who were vaccinated between May and December demonstrated however higher levels of antibodies, than those who undergone mild or asymptomatic (thus unregistered) infection. Only 7% of these vaccinated participants demonstrated antibodies that resulted from infection (anti-NCP). The highest levels of protection were observed in the group that had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 before May 2021 and also fully vaccinated between May and December. These observations demonstrate that the hidden fraction of herd immunity is considerable, however its potential to suppress the pandemics is limited, highlighting the key role of vaccinations.