Using temperature sensitivity to estimate shiftable electricity demand

Area of Science:

• Energy Systems Analysis
• Climate Change Adaptation
• Grid Management

Background:

• Increasing intermittent renewable energy sources and climate change exacerbate electricity demand variability.
• Centralized energy storage solutions are effective but often prohibitively expensive.
• Demand-side management, particularly shifting temperature-sensitive loads, presents a cost-effective alternative.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantify the potential of thermal energy storage to reshape electricity loads across the continental United States.
• To assess the impact of shifting temperature-sensitive demand on reducing electricity load variability.
• To evaluate the combined benefits of demand shifting and improved interregional transmission.

Main Methods:

• Paired fine-scale weather data with hourly electricity consumption data.
• Estimated the proportion of temperature-sensitive electricity demand across 31 regions in the continental U.S.
• Modeled the reduction in demand variability achieved by shifting temperature-sensitive loads, with and without enhanced interregional transmission.

Main Results:

• Shifting half of the temperature-sensitive electricity demand can eliminate approximately 75% of within-day, within-region demand variability.
• The benefits of shifting temperature-sensitive demand are complementary to those gained from improved interregional transmission.
• Demand shifting significantly mitigates challenges associated with serving higher electricity peaks driven by climate change.

Conclusions:

• Thermal energy storage offers a scalable and economical solution for managing electricity demand variability.
• Integrating demand-side management strategies like thermal storage is crucial for a resilient and adaptable electricity grid.
• The study highlights the synergistic effects of demand flexibility and grid modernization in addressing future energy challenges.