Personalized model to predict seizures based on dynamic and static continuous EEG monitoring data

Early recognition of patients who may be at risk of developing acute symptomatic seizures would be useful. We aimed to determine whether continuous electroencephalography (cEEG) data using machine learning techniques such as neural networks and decision trees could predict seizure occurrence in hospitalized patients.

This was a single center retrospective cohort analysis of cEEG data in patients aged 18-90 years who were admitted and underwent cEEG monitoring between 2010 and 2019 limited to 72 h excluding those who were seizing at the onset of recording. A total of 41,491 patients were reviewed; of these, 3874 were used to develop the static model and 1687 to develop the dynamic model (half with seizure and half without seizure in each cohort). Of these, 80% were randomly selected as derivation cohorts for each model and 20% were randomly selected as validation cohorts. Dynamic and static machine learning models (long short term memory (LSTM) and Extreme Gradient Boosting algorithm (XGBoost)) based on day-to-day dynamic EEG changes and binary static EEG features over the prior 72 h or until seizure, which ever was earlier, were used.

The static model was able to predict seizure occurrence based on cEEG data with sensitivity and specificity of 0.81 and 0.59, respectively, with an AUC of 0.70. The dynamic model was able to predict seizure occurrence with sensitivity and specificity of 0.72 and 0.80, respectively, and AUC of 0.81.

Machine learning models could be applied to cEEG data to predict seizure occurrence based on available cEEG data. Dynamic day-to-day EEG data are more useful in predicting seizures than binary static EEG data. These models could potentially be used to determine the need for ongoing cEEG monitoring and to prioritize resources.