Evolution in fluctuating environments: A generic modular approach

Evolutionary processes take place in fluctuating environments, where carrying capacities and selective forces vary over time. The fate of a mutant type and the persistence time of polymorphic states were studied in some specific cases of varying environments, but a generic methodology is still lacking. Here, we present such a general analytic framework. We first identify a set of elementary building blocks, a few basic demographic processes like logistic or exponential growth, competition at equilibrium, sudden decline, and so on. For each of these elementary blocks, we evaluate the mean and the variance of the changes in the frequency of the mutant population. Finally, we show how to find the relevant terms of the diffusion equation for each arbitrary combination of these blocks. Armed with this technique one may calculate easily the quantities that govern the evolutionary dynamics, like the chance of ultimate fixation, the time to absorption, and the time to fixation.