Seasonal variation in infant mortality in India

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Public Health
• Environmental Health

Background:

• Seasonal variations in health are crucial for understanding population, environment, and disease dynamics.
• Infant mortality rates (IMR) exhibit seasonal patterns influenced by environmental and socioeconomic factors.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate monthly infant mortality rates (₁m₀) in India.
• To analyze seasonal variations in infant mortality and their trends over time.
• To assess the impact of seasonal mortality patterns on overall child survival.

Main Methods:

• Utilized data from four rounds of India's Demographic and Health Surveys.
• Included over 330,000 children with information on birth month/year, survival status, and age at death.
• Estimated period mortality rates between birth and age one (₁m₀) by calendar month.

Main Results:

• Infant mortality is significantly higher during summer, monsoon, and winter months compared to spring.
• A hypothetical scenario of year-round spring mortality conditions could have reduced infant deaths by 11.4 per 1,000 in the early 1990s and 3.7 per 1,000 in the mid-2010s.
• Overall seasonal variation in infant mortality has decreased, but disparities persist among disadvantaged children.

Conclusions:

• Seasonal patterns in infant mortality pose significant environmental health risks to Indian infants.
• Reducing seasonal mortality variations could lead to substantial improvements in child survival.
• Targeted interventions during vulnerable seasons are essential for mitigating infant mortality, especially for disadvantaged populations.