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Temperature and influenza transmission: Risk assessment and attributable burden estimation among 30 cities in China
Rui Zhang1, Zhibin Peng1, Yujie Meng1
1Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Background:
Many studies have explored the epidemiological characteristics of influenza. However, most previous studies were conducted in a specific region without a national picture which is important to develop targeted strategies and measures on influenza control and prevention.
Objectives:
To explore the association between ambient temperature and incidence of influenza, to estimate the attributable risk from temperature in 30 Chinese cities with different climatic characteristics for a national picture, and to identify the vulnerable populations for national preventative policy development.
Methods:
Daily meteorological and influenza incidence data from the 30 Chinese cities over the period 2016-19 were collected. We estimated the city-specific association between daily mean temperature and influenza incidence using a distributed lag non-linear model and evaluated the pooled effects using multivariate meta-analysis. The attributable fractions compared with reference temperature were calculated. Stratified analyses were performed by region, sex and age.
Results:
Overall, an N-shape relationship between temperature and influenza incidence was found in China. The cumulative relative risk of the peak risk temperature (5.1 °C) was 2.13 (95%CI: 1.41, 3.22). And 60% (95%eCI: 54.3%, 64.3%) of influenza incidence was attributed to ambient temperature during the days with sensitive temperatures (1.6°C-14.4 °C). The ranges of sensitive temperatures and the attributable disease burden due to temperatures varied for different populations and regions. The residents in South China and the children aged ≤5 and 6-17 years had higher fractions attributable to sensitive temperatures.
Conclusions:
Tailored preventions targeting on most vulnerable populations and regions should be developed to reduce influenza burden from sensitive temperatures.
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