The existential risk space of climate change

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Risk Analysis
• Climate Science

Background:

• Climate change poses significant risks, but existential threats are poorly defined in scientific literature.
• This gap hinders engagement with public discourse on climate change's existential dimensions.
• Existing research on global catastrophic risks and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports inform the context.

Purpose of the Study:

• To address the gap in defining and framing existential risks related to climate change.
• To propose a definition of existential risks that encompasses threats to the existence of individuals, communities, or humanity.
• To establish analytical dimensions for understanding these risks.

Main Methods:

• Reviewing literature on global catastrophic risks and climate change.
• Analyzing Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports and civil society climate movement framing.
• Drawing lessons from the COVID-19 crisis.
• Proposing a definition of existential risks based on survival and basic human needs.

Main Results:

• Existential risks are defined as threats to the existence of a subject (individual, community, humanity).
• Severity is categorized by threats to survival and basic human needs.
• Six analytical dimensions are proposed: physical/social processes, systems affected, magnitude, spatial scale, timing, and probability.

Conclusions:

• A precise definition and framing of existential climate change risks are crucial.
• This framework facilitates scientific analysis, societal discourse, and political action.
• Improved understanding supports addressing the high-end risks of climate change.