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Time-Scale Analysis and Parameter Fitting for Vector-Borne Diseases with Spatial Dynamics.

Larissa Sartori1,2, Marcone Pereira3, Sergio Oliva3

  • 1Department of Applied Mathematics, IME-USP, Institute of Mathematics and Statistics, University of São Paulo, Rua do Matão, 1010, São Paulo, CEP 05508-090, Brazil. larissa.sartori@fgv.br.

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Summary

This study models vector-borne disease spread using the Ross-Macdonald model, incorporating human movement and different time scales. The research focuses on dengue transmission dynamics in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Keywords:
DengueHuman mobilityParameter fittingTime-scale analysisVector-borne diseases

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Modeling
  • Disease Dynamics

Background:

  • Vector-borne diseases are expanding globally, posing significant public health challenges.
  • Modeling the spatial-temporal dynamics of these diseases is complex due to differing vector and human movement patterns.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To adapt the Ross-Macdonald model for vector-borne diseases.
  • To incorporate human spatial mobility and distinct time scales into epidemiological models.
  • To apply the model to understand dengue spread in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Main Methods:

  • Utilizing the established Ross-Macdonald framework.
  • Identifying and integrating different temporal scales for vector and human populations.
  • Developing a simplified spatial model to simulate disease transmission.
  • Estimating model parameters for real-world application.

Main Results:

  • The study presents a refined model for analyzing vector-borne disease spread.
  • It highlights the importance of human movement in disease transmission dynamics.
  • The model is applied to the specific case of dengue in Rio de Janeiro.

Conclusions:

  • The adapted Ross-Macdonald model provides a valuable tool for studying spatial-temporal disease dynamics.
  • Understanding human mobility is crucial for effective disease control strategies.
  • The findings offer insights into dengue transmission patterns in the studied region.